Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, including the UK’s spring forecast

• Rachel Reeves’s plans could be hit by Middle East conflict, say economists

UK grocery price inflation has risen, showing that people are being hit in the pocket even before the surge in energy prices feeds through to the economy.

Data provider Worldpanel by Numerator has reported that annual grocery inflation rose to 4.3% in February, after four consecutive months of falls, in a blow for households. That’s up from 4% in January.

Sentiment towards BP and Shell has strengthened significantly off the back of oil price spikes. But it’s a complex picture. Neither company has production in Iran. But BP’s significant production in Iraq and Abu Dhabi risks being bottlenecked through disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. For Shell the same applies to its LNG facilities in Qatar and the Emirates. If a moderate sustainable regime is established in Iran, there is the potential for substantial derisking, and for prices to be rebased downwards. If sanctions are removed, it also opens the door for investment into Iranian oil fields.

But uncertainty remains high. This could prove to be highly profitable for both Shell and BP’s trading arms with Shell’s optimisation capabilities in LNG transit likely to be in particularly strong demand. Shell’s balance sheet strength also leaves it better placed to deal with any prolonged volatility and while BP’s buybacks remain on pause, we’re expecting Shell’s generous payouts are likely to continue this year.