Extended war in Middle East could cause ‘substantial spike’ in inflation and ‘sharp drop in output’ in eurozone and UK, ECB official says

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Shoppers faced a surprise jump in grocery inflation last month after four successive months of falls, as experts warned there is worse to come if there is prolonged war in the Middle East.

In a blow to households struggling with the cost of living, grocery price inflation rose to 4.3% in the four weeks to 22 February, after falling to 4% in January from 4.7% in December, according to the market research company Worldpanel by Numerator.